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Vishal Khandelwal

BookWorm: Your Money and Your Brain

September 15, 2016

Jason Zweig shows what happens in your brain when you think about money and tells investors how to take practical, simple steps to avoid common mistakes and become more successful.

Jason Zweig is an investment journalist and a long time investing columnist for Wall Street Journal. He is best known for editing and adding commentary to the revised edition of Benjamin Graham’s investment classic The Intelligent Investor. Graham’s book, considered as investing bible by many, was first published in 1949 and stays on top of every value investor’s reading list. In his commentary, Zweig has made Graham’s principles easier to understand and implement.

Your Money and Your Brain is Zweig’s attempt to demystify the subject of behavioural economics. The hypothesis that our emotions interfere with our rational thinking isn’t a hypothesis anymore. Zweig writes –

… over the past few years, scientists have made stunning discoveries about the ways the human brain evaluates rewards, sizes up risks, and calculates probabilities. With the wonders of imaging technology, we can now observe the precise neural circuitry that switches on and off in your brain when you invest.

[Read more…] about BookWorm: Your Money and Your Brain

Behaviouronomics: Hot Hand Fallacy

September 10, 2016

Human brain is a pattern seeking machine. When we see something that looks like order we usually attribute it to human intelligence and skill. Hot hand fallacy is a proof of how easily we get fooled by randomness.

One of the most embarrassing moments in my childhood days was when my class teacher asked me something about Sachin Tendulkar. I replied, “Who is Sachin Tendulkar?” It was 1992 and I was in 6th standard. The whole class, including the teacher, burst into laughter. That was the day when I started taking active interest in cricket. Of course the motivation was to avoid looking like a fool in a cricket crazy nation.

“Dravid is not in form these days,” claimed one of my friends.

“I hope he comes back in form soon else he will be dropped from the national team,” argued another friend.

I nodded in agreement. I was faking. Because one thing that still baffled me was the idea of a player being “in-form” or “out-of-form.”

“What’s this in-form and out-of-form business?” I asked my best friend. He was the only who I didn’t feel the need to impress with my cricket knowledge.

“Well, if a player plays consistently well for many innings, he’s said to be in good form. Otherwise he’s considered as out of form,” he explained. “An in-form player is always in demand because he’s expected to continue playing well.”

Why does an in-form player play well? The form was based on his past performance so how does that ensure his future performance? Isn’t this form business based on a circular logic?

These were some intelligent questions that I should have asked from my best friend but I wasn’t really very inquisitive as a child so I left it that.
[Read more…] about Behaviouronomics: Hot Hand Fallacy

Spotlight: When to Sell Your Stocks

September 5, 2016

If you are a long-term investor, the very thought of selling a stock comes with a host of emotions and dilemmas. In this post, we bring in experienced investors to share their thoughts on how they have managed to overcome the issues surrounding selling their own stocks.

Barbara Streisand, an American singer and actress found a new occupation for herself in 1999, during the heydays of the dot com bubble. She became a stock picker. What’s more, she started managing funds of her close friend Donna Karan, a leading US fashion designer, of the DKNY fame.

Times were so good then, that in just five months of intense trading, Streisand turned Karan’s investment of US$ 1 million to US$ 1.8 million.

Now, for all her dabbling in the risky territory of stock trading, Streisand admitted that the volatility made her nervous. As she confessed then to a friend, “I can’t stand to see red in my profit-or-loss column. I’m Taurus the bull, so I react to red. If I see red, I sell my stocks quickly.”

Well, for a die-hard fan of Streisand or a stock trader, this rule of selling stocks – whenever they are in the red – may sound like a gospel truth. In fact, some of the smartest and most successful traders would agree to the fact about cutting their losses as soon as possible.
[Read more…] about Spotlight: When to Sell Your Stocks

Life 2.0: Writing, the Warren Buffett Way

August 30, 2016

There is no greater agony than bearing an untold story inside you.” ~ Maya Angelou

One of the key characteristics of the world’s most charismatic men is their uncanny ability to engage people. After all, this is what makes them charismatic.

All these men – like Warren Buffett or Jack Welch – engage people like no one else. As they speak their first words, the world is all ears.

Take Buffett for instance. He is inarguably the world’s best investor. After reading his annual reports for the past ten years, I also count him among the most charismatic writers I’ve ever come across.

Buffett’s annual letters to shareholders are masterpieces, year after year. And he’s writing those plain-white zero-graphic booklets for the past five decades.

Pick up any annual report other than Berkshire’s (Buffett’s company), and you will know what I’m talking about. Almost 99% of other annual reports follow the ‘safe, bland, reassuring’ route. The ‘letter to shareholders’ are written by expert writers (and not CEOs themselves), and most contain language that is best fit for a dull, dreary advertisement.

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Want to Read More? This content is exclusive for members of Value Investing Almanack. Login to read if you are a member. Else, click here to subscribe.

Benefits to VIA Members
 
  • Spotlight: Big ideas from Value Investing and why applying them in your investment decision making will be a great deal
  • InvestorInsights: Interviews with experienced value investors, learners, and deep thinkers
  • StockTalk: Thorough analysis of business models of companies (without any recommendations)
  • Behaviouronomics: Deep analysis of human behaviour and how it impacts investment decision making
  • BookWorm: Reviews of the best books on Value Investing and related subjects
  • Free Course – Financial Statement Analysis for Smart People (otherwise priced at Rs 5,900)
  • Archives: Instant access to our huge archive from the past three years
Become a VIA Member. Click to Subscribe

Super Investor: Howard Marks on Second Level Thinking

August 30, 2016

The environment we live in today is pretty complex. No moment is exactly the same. History, as they say, never repeats itself. You can never claim confidently that a set of causes will always replicate the same set of effects unless you’re dealing with hard physical laws.

Even if you do something with good intentions, the inherent complexity of the world will tend to produce results which you could never have anticipated. The world is complex and unfair. Here’s an anecdote to prove my point.

During the British government in India, the city of Delhi was facing the problem of too many venomous cobra snakes. To deal with the issue, government officials offered a bounty for every dead cobra. Initially this was a successful strategy as large numbers of snakes were killed for the reward. Eventually, however, enterprising people began to breed cobras for the income. When the government became aware of this, the reward program was scrapped, causing the cobra breeders to set the now-worthless snakes free. As a result, the wild cobra population further increased. The apparent solution for the problem made the situation even worse.

<!–more–>

Want to Read More? This content is exclusive for members of Value Investing Almanack. Login to read if you are a member. Else, click here to subscribe.

Benefits to VIA Members
 
  • Spotlight: Big ideas from Value Investing and why applying them in your investment decision making will be a great deal
  • InvestorInsights: Interviews with experienced value investors, learners, and deep thinkers
  • StockTalk: Thorough analysis of business models of companies (without any recommendations)
  • Behaviouronomics: Deep analysis of human behaviour and how it impacts investment decision making
  • BookWorm: Reviews of the best books on Value Investing and related subjects
  • Free Course – Financial Statement Analysis for Smart People (otherwise priced at Rs 5,900)
  • Archives: Instant access to our huge archive from the past three years
Become a VIA Member. Click to Subscribe
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