Spotlight

Have you ever noticed that finding an available spot in the multilevel car parking in any mall or shopping complex is an interesting exercise in mental maths? Let me explain.

Whenever I enter the parking area, I often try to optimize, i.e., find a spot near the lift lobby/staircase. Which means the moment I enter the parking area, I have to forego the easily available spots and keep driving towards the lift lobby and then hope that there’s a spot available near it. If there isn’t, then I would have to drive up to the next floor, which is kind of worse than the case where I would have taken the first few available spots near the parking entrance. So how many first available spots should I pass before I decide to stop searching?

It turns out that mathematicians have spent centuries thinking about this class of problems. They call it The Optimal Stopping problem.
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In 1999 when Warren Buffett bought a 75% stake in MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company, David Sokol was its CEO. He retained his position till 2008. Apart from managing MidAmerican, Sokol played a crucial role in turning around Berkshire’s other investments like NetJets and Johns Manville. Over the years he established a reputation inside Berkshire Hathaway as Mr. Fixit.

In his annual letters, Buffett often referred to Sokol as a terrific manager, a brilliant dealmaker and a huge asset to Berkshire. In his 2008 letter, he wrote —
[Read more…] about It’s Not Supposed to Be Fair

On December 24, 2014, AirAsia Flight 8501 took off from Surabaya (Indonesia) at 5.30 am local time. With 155 passengers and 7 crew members onboard, the flight was headed to Singapore. About 43 minutes into its flight, the Airbus A320 disappeared from the radar. The worst had come to pass. Two days later, the rescue team discovered the plane wreckage in Java sea. All 162 people onboard perished in the crash.

The crash investigation revealed that it was a pilot error. The in command Captain Iriyanto — a 53-year old former Indonesian Air Force pilot — performed a non-standard reset of the onboard flight control computers. Which means he did something which was not mentioned anywhere in any of the operating manuals. Why would someone with an experience of more than 20,000 flight hours do such a thing?
[Read more…] about The Risk of Worrying About the Non-Risk

Among all the contemporary business leaders, very few come close to Jeff Bezos’ talent for communicating business strategies in a simplified manner. Like Warren Buffett, Bezos writes an open letter to Amazon’s shareholders every year. He’s been doing it for over two decades.

These letters have become an extraordinary source of insight into how Bezos (the world’s richest man) and his company (Amazon) think about customers, innovation, building products, and future.

Amazon started as an online bookselling platform and interestingly didn’t turn a profit for the first six years. Today it’s the second publicly traded company (after Apple) to ever hit a market capitalization of $1 trillion.

Like me, if you’re an admirer of Bezos, then you’re in the good company of people like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger who are also big fans of the Amazon CEO. Buffett and Munger admit that they failed to see Bezos’ genius early on. Buffett called him the most remarkable business person of our age. Munger, in his nonchalant voice, said, “Jeff Bezos is a different species.”
[Read more…] about Wandering with a Beginner’s Mind

According to an estimate, 2.5 crores people were born in our country in the year 1981. I was one of them. Of those 2.5 crore infants, about half (45%) were born to parents living under the poverty line. Fortunately, I wasn’t one of them. And that’s perhaps the greatest fortune I’ve had in my entire life. That one event — being born to financially sound, kind, educated, and loving parents — contributed about 95% to the outcome that today I am not among those who don’t know where their next meal will come from.

Warren Buffett calls it winning the ovarian lottery. He writes —

I’ve had it so good in this world, you know. The odds were fifty-to-one against me born in the United States in 1930. I won the lottery the day I emerged from the womb by being in the United States instead of in some other country where my chances would have been way different.

Imagine there are two identical twins in the womb, both equally bright and energetic. And the genie says to them, “One of you is going to be born in the United States, and one of you is going to be born in Bangladesh. And if you wind up in Bangladesh, you will pay no taxes. What percentage of your income would you bid to be the one this is born in the United States?” It says something about the fact that society has something to do with your fate and not just your innate qualities. The people who say, “I did it all myself,” and think of themselves as Horatio Alger – believe me, they’d bid more to be in the United States than in Bangladesh. That’s the Ovarian Lottery.

My streak of luck didn’t end with my ovarian lottery.
[Read more…] about Here’s to Continued Luck