If you’ve been a reader of Safalniveshak for sometime you’d already be familiar with the game of Russian Roulette. For those who aren’t, here’s a quick explanation.
In fact I’ll let Nassim Taleb, author of Fooled By Randomness, do the explaining –
Imagine you are offered $10 million to play Russian roulette, i.e., to put a revolver containing one bullet in the six available chambers to your head and pull the trigger. Each realisation would count as one history, for a total of six possible histories of equal probabilities. Five out of these six histories would lead to enrichment; one would lead to a statistic, that is, an obituary with an embarrassing (but certainly original) cause of death.
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