This is the fourth part of the series where I’m sharing those essays, articles, and speeches that pass the Lindy Filter. If you haven’t heard about this strange term called Lindy Filter, please read a detailed post I had written about Lindy Effect a few years back.
Once upon a time, there were two merchants. Jaggeryman and Oilman. As the name suggests, they used to sell jaggery and oil, respectively. Doing business in their village was simple. People would come to their shops, buy the stuff, pay cash and leave.
But humans get impatient with simple things. So our merchant duo decided to move their shops to a city, rented shops next to each other and hoped that their products would start flying off the shelf. But when sales didn’t pick up even after a few weeks, during a brainstorming session, Oilman suggested that they should do a simulation — a customer-shopkeeper role-play — to figure out if they’re missing something obvious.
[Read more…] about Behaviouronomics: Mind Projection Fallacy
This is the fourth part of the series where I’m sharing with you those essays, articles, and speeches that pass the Lindy Filter. If you haven’t heard about this strange term called Lindy Filter, please read a detailed post I had written about Lindy Effect a few years back.
20 Rules of Formulating Knowledge
It’s estimated that one thing common between forty percent of medical students in western countries is a tool called Anki. Anki assists them in assimilating a gargantuan amount of information that medical education requires. Similarly, many language learning enthusiasts also use Anki to memorize the vocabulary of a new language. However, outside these two cohorts, Anki software is pretty much unknown. Recently, Anki has been picking up interest among people from the programming community and a bunch of self-proclaimed life-long-learners — Yours truly being one of them.
[Read more…] about Spotlight: Lindy Beyond Books – Part 4
On the morning of January 28, 1986, the space shuttle Challenger caught fire and broke apart in the air just 73 seconds after its lift-off from the Kennedy Space Center. Unfortunately, all seven crew members perished in the disaster.
President Ronald Reagan appointed a commission to investigate the incident. The Rogers commission headed by William Rogers, after months of deliberation, published a report attributing the cause of the accident to a failure in the O-rings — a sealing joint on the right solid rocket booster.
From the post-mortem perspective, it was an adequate reason to conclude the investigation. Still, there was one person among them who disagreed with how the reporting was being done. The man was Richard Feynman — a Nobel Laureate and one of the most celebrated Physicists of the 20th century. Feynman, inspite of his battle with terminal cancer at that time, agreed to be part of the investigation.
[Read more…] about Behaviouronomics: Optimistic Probability Bias
This is the third part of the series. The idea is to share with you those essays, articles, and speeches that pass the Lindy Filter.
Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable
Written by Richard Zeckhauser in 2006, the paper looks at how to invest rationally in unknown and unknowable situations and how behavioral finance can shed light on these situations and decisions.
He starts by differentiating between Risk and Uncertainty. He defines risk as the probability of permanent loss of capital whereas uncertainty is the inherent unpredictability of the future.
[Read more…] about Spotlight: Lindy Beyond Books – Part 3